We just ran out of gold! What next?! – Part 3
![We just ran out of gold! What next?! – Part 3](/data/include/img/news/1726561469.jpg)
![Złota planeta Ziemia rozsypująca się na kawałki](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/Koniec_3_Ilustracja.jpg?v=1726498234137)
What if gold has run out on Earth? No more gold. Es gibt kein gold. No existe el oro. Zołota niet. Złota nie ma - wyszło. In our search for yellow metal, we’re going to travel in time, reach where mankind barely reached so far, discover fascinating world of microorganisms and try to make modern philosophical stone. We’ll step down below Earth’s crust, touch the ocean bottom and look in the stars. So, join us in an adventure in search for not-so obvious and hidden gold.
In this series we attempted to imagine world without yellow metal and discuss possible ways to provide its volumes. Started our journey by learning on great past cosmic events that created gold, which allowed us to understand some processes occurring on Earth in epic planetary magnitude. In second part we searched for gold in the world of microorganisms and atoms. In concluding part of series we’ll attempt to reach for gold from beneath the oceans, and then for extra-terrestrial yellow metal.
Twenty thousand leagues under the seas – on seabed gold mining
During the midst of Cold War, group of US scientists forming very informal group named American Miscellaneous Society came up with idea to make an attempt to drill through solid Earth’s crust to reach an important transition boundary separating it from half-molten mantle. Its name was Mohorovičić discontinuity, or just ‘Moho’, as English-speakers love to shorten names, they consider too difficult to pronounce. Brains behind idea – soon referred as ‘Project Mohole’ were Walter Munk, an oceanographer, and geologist Harry Hess.
![Harry Hammond Hess](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/01.jpg?v=1726498234138)
Geologist Dr. Harry Hammond Hess lectures about Project Mohole at Princeton University in 1961. Source: Vox
Earth’s crust is on average, approx. 22 miles / 35 km thick on land, but at the bottom of the ocean, it averages to 4 miles / 6.5 km in thickness. Scientists decided if they want to drill through the crust to the mantle, they’d need to drill underwater. Reasons behind ‘Project Mohole’ were purely scientific but eventually, an element of politics had to be involved. Funding stage occurred in late 50’s of twentieth century, shortly after USSR released Sputnik – Earth’s first artificial satellite – and therefore took leadership in space race. So when soviet scientists started talking about possibility to reach Moho layer, being step ahead of Russians became matter of importance. And so funding from federal National Science Foundation occurred and ‘Project Mohole’ received a green light.
It has been designed as divided on three phases, (1 – experimental, 2 – intermediate, 3 - actual Moho targeting). Nowadays it is generally considered as failure, as unable to commence stage two. Not because it was beyond technical possibilities – just contrary - project had been finally defunded in 1966, years after successful stage one completion, Congress questioned funding and choice of contractors and scientists behind it lacked common vision on next stages.
Has ‘Project Mohole’ really failed? Crew drilled five holes in Earth’s underwater crust at 3 km under sea level, deepest at 183m. Crew completed this stage in timely manner and under assumed costs, delivering important geologically samples. In just phase one, they successfully tested experimental techniques of seabed drilling that could later led potentially to deep-water mining and oil & gas extraction. Hence project met expectations of funding parties, not quite interested in pursuing scientific targets.
![CUSS](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/02.jpg?v=1726498234138)
CUSS I on Project Mohole. Source: https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/22276597/project-mohole-deep-ocean-drilling-unexplainable-podcast
Stage one of ‘Project Mohole’ was being performed using ‘CUSS I’ vessel. You would expect vessel’s name to be meaningful - like ‘Titanic’, ‘Unsinkable 2’ or ‘Ebitda’ – and such was in this case. Name was derived from consortium of oil companies - Continental, Union, Superior and Shell Oil – interested in potential of underwater oil drilling. ‘CUSS I’ was to be a technological test bed for the nascent offshore oil industry and one of the first vessels in the world capable of drilling in deep water, though it had been limited to depths of 100 m. In ‘Project Mohole’ scientists used said vessel to set piping segments 3k meters underwater. Another important aspect was that they figured out method to keep ship still in the middle of the ocean as dropping an anchor would be rather impossible, since seafloor was so far down. Answer was to stack multiple propellers and keep them running together to hold platform in one place. Dynamic positioning – as it became known - commonly remains in use nowadays. But then were another issue to consider – how to lower piping segments through strong underwater currents, how to drill through pipes, how to drill through different or unusual layers, how to bring up rock samples… And scientists behind ‘Project Mohole managed to answer all of the questions above.
![Strefy](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/03.jpg?v=1726498234138)
A schematic showing jurisdictional zones from a nation's coast. Source: The Royal Society, London.
Project Mohole is to be considered as godfather of a deep-sea mining, idea so revived in recent years. Of course with regards to oil and gas such activities are being performed, however generally oil and gas rigs are set on shale waters, while humanity just prepares to deep-sea mining or drilling.
Apart of technological requirements there are couple legal aspects to consider on the subject. First of all is division between exclusive economic zone and deep sea. In 1982 United Nations passed UNCLOS - United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It turned certain area of seabed into national exclusive economic zones available for exploitation by coastal countries. With regards to EEZ, coastal states have exclusive rights and jurisdiction over the resources within their 200 nautical miles (370 km), known as exclusive economic zone. Some states have extended continental shelf beyond the EEZ within which they have sovereign rights over the seabed and any mineral resources, though not over the water column. However where EEZ ends as a line on the map, starts deep sea, and in terms of underwater mining, legal approach do complicate. UNCLOS declared deep-sea areas outside EEZs as common heritage of mankind, banned until mining code was to be agreed. To make such, in 1994 International Seabed Authority (ISA) has been set up. And until now it failed to produce such.
From a legal point of view there is however loophole, used in 2021 by Pacific nation of Nauru. It states, if country applies to start deep-sea mining in the Area, ISA has precisely two years to produce a code and sharing mechanism. If not, mining can start. At the end, such code has not been developed due to disagreements between member countries. In the meantime, underfinanced ISA issued number of expensive in price prospecting permits (until now just over 30), especially in Clarion-Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico. And so, we’re aware about underwater mineral, we’re close to discover economic potential of deep-sea mining. But at the same time, we swim onto uncharted waters of adverse environmental impact of deep-sea mining.
![Clarion-Clipperton Zone](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/04.jpg?v=1726498234138)
Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Source: https://www.isa.org.jm/maps/clarion-clipperton-fracture-zone/
Seabed mining remains especially interesting for prospectors of industrial metals. Certain works had been undertaken at Papua New Guinea in 2018. However in recent years it is China being often mentioned as leading the way. Beijing understands importance of hard assets as precious metals and commodities, in times of US dollar weaponisation. Also Japan actively explores pathways to mine deep sea of its exclusive economic zone, in an effort to lessen reliance on imported rare earth elements needed for advanced and green technologies. Such is planned to commence in 2024, by Minami-Torishima Island. This direction had grown in significance due to temporary 2010 ban on rare earth elements performed by China due to tensions between parties.
On the technical side, mining interests plan to use large, robotic machines to excavate the ocean floor in a way that's similar to strip-mining on land. Harvested materials had to be pumped up to the ship, while wastewater and debris have to be dumped into the ocean, forming large sediment clouds underwater. The slurry had then to be loaded onto barges and shipped to onshore processing facilities. Of course method and technicalities will be subject to change i.e. due to bedrock formation.
With regards to precious metals, prospectors have long coveted the precious metals embedded in the ocean floor. Not gold per se, but diamond conglomerate De Beers has been mining diamonds from shallow waters off southwest Africa since 1960. However so far companies haven't been willing to invest heavily in such a difficult and costly undertaking, but recent combination of advances in underwater-mining technologies and steep increases in the value of gold and other precious metals has triggered an aggressive push to mine deep ocean floor. Based on 2010 data, some seafloor sulphides contain commercially significant grades of gold (0–20 ppm) and silver (up to 1,200 ppm). Hence very loose 2016 estimations of at least 150 trl USD of gold under our ocean - nine pounds of gold (4+ kg) for every person on earth.
![Sea mining](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/05.jpg?v=1726498234138)
A schematic showing the processes involved in deep-sea mining for the three main types of mineral deposit. Source: K. Miller at al, An Overview of Seabed Mining Including the Current State of Development, Environmental Impacts, and Knowledge Gaps
Race for Martian and Moon resources
Humans were always looking onto the stars, in attempt to understand world surrounding us, or just simply due to their beauty. In 20th century we finally reached for them, sending first human to orbit, space and then on the surface of our only natural satellite – Moon. We also turned our eyes on ‘neighbouring’ planets. Russians successfully probed Venus (Venera missions), while United States focused on Mars (Viking program), eventually delivering rovers on the surface of red planet. In 21st century, with growth of geopolitical tensions, space race had been reinvigorated, now with participation of new national and corporate superpowers.
And so, although again deeply divided, mankind aims for Moon and Mars. Establishing permanent lunar base is being perceived as making gateway to further space exploration, colonisation and other endeavours. But also to reassure access to ‘local’ resources. There are many official entities showing interest in subject, including Russia, China, Japan, India, EU and of course the only country that ever performed successful human Moon landing – USA.
NASA has initiated Artemis Moon to Mars program to send astronauts (specifically described as first woman and person of colour) back to the lunar surface, create a sustainable human lunar exploration program, and led first human exploration mission to Mars in the late 2030’s. Besides reinvigorating human exploration beyond low Earth orbit and enabling new scientific activities and discoveries, major objective of this program is to characterize the resources that exist on the Moon and Mars, and learn how to utilize them for human exploration and the commercialization of lunar space. As we described in part one of this analysis, leading scientific direction is that Moon had sustained similar cosmic debris bombardments as Earth. Hence it should contain at least majority of elements from Mendeleev’s periodic table, and so presence of gold, silver and platinoids, rather seem to be certain.
Building a permanent base on the Moon and maintaining it will force use of local resources, and this is what we could call a space mining. In-Situ Resource Utilisation (ISRU) is being worked on by NASA, ESA, as well as space agencies from China, India, Russia and other countries, as the search for, acquisition, and processing of resources in space has the potential to greatly reduce the dependency on transporting mission consumables and infrastructure from Earth, thereby reducing mission costs, risks, and dependency on Earth made deliveries. In this particular case achieving closest to possible levels of self-sustainability, would be the key. And of course there is also great need to establish guidelines that could address how to minimize the environmental and surface impacts of lunar ISRU and foster ‘responsible’ space mining that can be implemented until more official agreements and treaties are signed. NASA aims for existing robust mining regulations adopted globally to be used as a basis for this examination and to adopt these for use in space mining.
ISRU involves the extraction of oxygen, water and other available materials for cranking out rocket fuel and to "gas up" life-support systems. Then there's pulling out metals on the moon, say to fabricate lunar housing, landing pads, along with other structures and products. At this stage of planning precious metals are not being mentioned, as extra-terrestrial facilities will simply have to prioritise their own needs and ensure as high self-sufficiency as possible. Hence lunar or Martian precious metals won’t be on the top of a list, although still very interesting from a scientific point of view done for final consumer on Earth. However, from the commercial point of view, cost of extra-terrestrial gold mining & logistics, even after exclusion of R&D costs, simply won’t allow to breakeven, to justify such endeavour in nearest future. But we’ll cover costings bit later.
R&D and similar remain an issue causing very high entry point. Latest realistic estimates, which at least partly take into account inflation factor arising since 2020, mention of USD 35-49 billion needed for such Moon facility to be built at all. With an operating cycle of 20 years, we have to add additional 2.6-2.7 bln USD per year just to maintain project. Current budget allocated to NASA for 2024 is 24.8 bln USD, y/y less by 2%, of which about 1/3 is for the development of Artemis programme. And during geopolitical rivalry, error margin lessen - after all, there is prestige of superpower on stake.
![Moon Mining](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/06_2.jpg?v=1726498234137)
How Moon Mining Could Work. Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-lunar-gold-rush-how-moon-mining-could-work/
And so, NASA has already awarded funds to Austin, Texas-based ICON, to develop construction technologies that could help build landing pads, habitats, and roads on the Moon using local lunar resources. And to prove that matters are to be taken seriously, space mining programmes are being introduced to mining schools. One of such is Center for Space Resources at the Colorado School of Mines. Other is Space Borehole Mining at Poland’s AGH University of Science and Technology.
To reach far and beyond – asteroid gold mining
Apart of planets and star, our solar system also consist asteroids - class of small rocky and metallic bodies orbiting our sun. These bodies represent remains of failed planetesimals, or proto-planets. Asteroid composition varies widely, from volatile-rich bodies to metallic with high concentrations of rare metals such as gold, silver and platinum, in addition to more common elements such as iron and nickel. We are able to make some determinations on such distant space debris by performing UV spectroscopy.
And we mark such discoveries publically i.e. in Asterank - scientific and economic database of over 600k asteroids (https://www.asterank.com/).
Asteroid mining (very popular in all S/F literature) is proposed approach to obtain critical elements. Because of the difficult nature inherent to such endeavour, only few governments and private companies can realistically consider such. Currently among many are Planetary Resources, which works on such solutions since last decade, and AMC (Asteroid Mining Corporation) which according to its roadmap should develop commercial mass return mission beyond 2035. However costs of such endeavour, mde Planetary Resources and other – Deep Space Industries, to be sold in recent years. Although recently more start-ups started appearing i.e. US based AstroForge, which is yet another commercial, non-governmental attempt to reach for outer space resources.
Current understanding of asteroid composition confirms they are a likely source of many critical elements, however, asteroid mining is currently only viable as a future long-term solution. But it’s not like all asteroids are equal. And so, have three main types depending on what we aim to mine:
• C-type - More than 75% of known asteroids fit into this category. The composition of C-type asteroids is similar to that of the sun without the hydrogen, helium and other volatiles.
• S-type - About 17% of asteroids are this type. These contain deposits of nickel, iron and magnesium.
• M-type – Approx. 8%, so small number of asteroids are this type, and they contain nickel, iron and many other. Famous Psyche 16 is categorised as such.
Platinum-rich asteroids may contain grades of up to 100 grams per ton, 10-20 times higher than open pit platinum mines in South Africa. These ore grades mean that one 500-meter-wide platinum-rich asteroid could contain nearly 175 times the annual global platinum output, or 1.5 times the known world reserves of platinum group metals. Of course impact of such asteroid would cause tsunami across the planet and destruction of an area comparable to Poland. Above becomes even more epic in case of famous ‘golden boy’ – large M type asteroid known better as Psyche 16. 220+ km in diameter, extensively rich in iron, nickel and gold, worthy altogether more than Earth’s global economy. To be more specific – estimations are at 700 quintillion USD worth of gold, just enough for every person on earth to receive at least 93 billion USD. In October 2023, NASA sent probe, which should reach Psyche 16 in August 2029 and continue orbiting it for 26 months measuring its gravity, magnetic capabilities, metal content and whatever mysteries it contains. Truly magnificent time to be alive.
![Asteroid Psyche 16](https://www.metalmarket.eu/data/include/cms/blog-mme/Skonczylo-sie-zloto-cz.3/07.jpg?v=1726559564308)
Psyche 16. Source: CNN
Of course impact of such giant would made everyone on Earth extremely rich and extremely dead at a same time. Hence it is better to deliver such wealth not all at once but piece by piece. Or change its trajectory and apply breaks at Earth’s gravitational field. And that is direction undertaken by Company Planetary Resources and the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) who have independently conducted feasibility studies for asteroid mining and retrieval. According to the KISS study, cost for a future mission to identify, capture and return a 500 ton asteroid (using propellers) to near Earth orbit would be at 2.6 bln USD, ignoring costs to develop the infrastructure necessary to process the materials in the asteroid. In comparison, Planetary Resources estimated that a single 30 meter long platinum-rich asteroid could contain 25 to 50 bln USD worth of platinum. KISS study of 2012 claims that it will be feasible to "identify, capture, and return" an asteroid seven meters in diameter and 500,000 kg in weight using technology that could be developed in the next decade. This study states that asteroid mining is feasible as long as three major advances are in place - development of an efficient solar/electric propulsion system, development of a campaign to discover and target potential asteroids, and the establishment of a human presence in lunar orbit.
From the technical point of view, humankind is able to reach such moving space objects. Japan conducted a Hayabusa mission, which was successful autonomous approach, land on, sample acquisition and return mission to the asteroid Itokawa. At the end it had to drop sample capsule over Australia. European Space Agency managed to make a rendezvous with 67P Churyumov-Gerasimenko comet, escort it as it orbits the Sun, and deploy a lander to its surface during acclaimed Rosetta-Philae mission. Although it was one way journey.
But there are also some costs to occur. Sending 18 t. cargo to Low Earth orbit via Ariane 5, costs 165 mln EUR. Soyuz rocket launch can cost in between 53-225 mln USD per launch. Rosetta-Philae mission amounted in total of 1.4 bln EUR. Just vessels Hayabusa and Hayabusa 2 costed respectfully 100-150 mln USD and 400+ mln USD. Hayabusa brought back less than 1 mg. sample due to technical issues, while Hayabusa 2 returned 5.4 g. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission,seeks to obtain samples from a near-earth asteroid named Bennu. Despite only being projected to return between 400 grams and 1 kilogram of material, mission is projected to take 7 years and cost over US$1 billion.
Of course there are also smaller commercial entities providing orbital deliveries, just to mention New Zealand / California Rocket Lab. And of course there is SpaceX – Elon Musk’s precious child. In 2022 company had to increase charges for Falcon 9 launch from around 62 mln USD (or around $1,200 per pound / 0.45 kg of payload to reach low-Earth orbit) to 67 mln USD, roughly 8%. These of course include margin – after all company is not charity. Without this component we’d be possibly discussing estimated 10-20 mln USD range per launch, including fixed and variable costs, but without development costs.
SpaceX website allows users to check and book available flights and price estimations depending on desired payload mass (https://rideshare.spacex.com/search). Something that just 10-20 years ago would be unimaginable.
At present however, asteroid mining is a highly speculative technique in no way financially viable. Research and technology, infrastructure and techniques to successfully exploit mineral resources from asteroids is still under early stages of development. Hence, making short term returns is unlikely for mining companies. Challenges include categorization and identification of mineable deposits, building infrastructure to mine and refine asteroid material, creating ability to move mined material onto earth are to be solved. Current proposals suggest placing processing facilities in earth or lunar orbit with regular access service to the asteroid belt, remoteness of these facilities will make them difficult to create and maintain, requiring significant advances in robotic technology.
Summary
To conclude our trilogy – we tried to imagine world without gold and consider alternative ways to obtain volumes. We’ve started with scientific theories on gold origins, checked content of gold atoms in water and living organisms, attempted to obtain gold using seaweeds and bacteria, even focused on obtaining gold on atomic levels. Eventually took under consideration subject of deep-sea and space mining.
Although there are certain possibilities, they face cost related obstacles, need for long and costly R&D or simply are being considered inefficient in terms of volumes we would need. In addition some would require creating legal regulatory frameworks.
But thankfully, for now there’s no need to look for gold deep in space or underwater. It’s simply few clicks away, on Metal Market Europe online shop.